The roles of liquidity and delay in financial markets based on an optimal forecasting model.

We investigate the roles of liquidity and delay in financial markets through our proposed optimal forecasting model. The efficiency and liquidity of the financial market are examined using stochastic models that incorporate information delay. Based on machine learning, we estimate the in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting price performances of the six proposed methods using the likelihood function and Bayesian methods, and the out-of-sample prediction performance is compared with the benchmark model ARIMA-GARCH. We discover that the forecasting price performance of the proposed simplified delay stochastic model is superior to that of the benchmark methods by the test methods of a variety of loss function, superior predictive ability test (SPA), Akaike information criterion (AIC), and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Using data from the Chinese stock market, the best forecasting model assesses the efficiency and liquidity of the financial market while accounting for information delay and trade probability. The rise in trade probability and delay time affects the stability of the return distribution and raises the risk, according to stochastic simulation. The empirical findings show that empirical and best forecasting approaches are compatible, that company size and liquidity (delay time) have an inverse relationship, and that delay time and liquidity have a nonlinear relationship. The most efficient have optimal liquidity.

Synergistic driving effects of risk factors on human brucellosis in Datong City, China: A dynamic perspective from spatial heterogeneity.

Brucellosis is a highly contagious zoonotic and systemic infectious disease caused by Brucella, which seriously affects public health and socioeconomic development worldwide. Particularly, in China accumulating eco-environmental changes and agricultural intensification have increased the expansion of human brucellosis (HB) infection. As a traditional animal husbandry area adjacent to Inner Mongolia, Datong City in northwestern China is characterized by a high HB incidence, demonstrating obvious variations in the risk pattern of HB infection in recent years. In this study, we built Bayesian spatiotemporal models to detect the transfer of high-risk clusters of HB occurrence in Datong from 2005 to 2020. Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression and GeoDetector were employed to investigate the synergistic driving effects of multiple potential risk factors. Results confirmed an evident dynamic expansion of HB from the east to the west and south in Datong. The distribution of HB showed a negative correlation with urbanization level, economic development, population density, temperature, precipitation, and wind speed, while a positive correlation with the normalized difference vegetation index, and grassland/cropland cover areas. Especially, the local animal husbandry and related industries imposed a large influence on the spatiotemporal distribution of HB. This work strengthens the understanding of how HB spatial heterogeneity is driven by environmental factors, through which helpful insights can be provided for decision-makers to formulate and implement disease control strategies and policies for preventing the further spread of HB.

A full-scale black soldier fly larvae (Hermetia illucens) bioconversion system for domestic biodegradable wastes to resource.

Domestic biodegradable wastes (DBW) pose a threat to environmental quality and human health. Bioconversion via black soldier fly larvae (BSFL; Hermitia illucens L.) is an expedient way for converting 'waste to resource' (insect protein and biofertilizer). Although researches abounded in laboratory-reared experiments and bioconversion mechanisms were pertinent, the void of data from actual and full-scale operation restricts the intensification of BSFL technology and its global adoption. Hence, a full-scale BSFL bioconversion system lasting 4 years in Hangzhou (China) was investigated, and the feasibility and efficiency of 15 tonnes of DBW per day were studied. Through continuous technical optimization, the average production of fresh larvae was increased from 8.5% in 2017 to 15.3% in 2020, along with bioconversion rate of final vermicompost decreased from 35.4% to 14.5%. The total biomass reduction rate in 2020 was 68.7 ± 17.4 kg/(m3 d), equivalent to 0.735 ± 0.215 kg/(kg d) in the form of fresh larvae. Crude fat in fresh larvae accounted for 13.4%, and crude protein accounted for 16.2% in which the determined amino acid profile bore a strong resemblance to fish meal only except histidine and tyrosine. Its economic benefits proved the feasibility of this technology, and the profit reached up to 35.9 US$ per tonne of DBW in 2019. In conclusion, BSFL bioconversion system under current 'insect-farm' operation was a promising solution for DBW treatment with value-added waste recycling.

Relationship between outpatients' sociodemographic and belief characteristics and their healthcare-seeking behavioral decision-making: Evidence from Jiaxing city, China.

BACKGROUND: China established the Tiered-network Healthcare Delivery System (THDS) in 2015 to address the disproportionate number of patients attending tertiary hospitals relative to primary- or secondary-care institutions. Although the reported number of outpatients visiting tertiary hospitals is slowly decreasing, numerous patients choose to visit them regardless of their disease's severity. To effectively implement the THDS, this article explored the relationship between patients' sociodemographic and belief characteristics and their healthcare-seeking behavioral decision-making in China. METHODS: Data obtained through questionnaires were analyzed using decision tree and logistic regression models to explore outpatients' characteristics and medical decision-making using comprehensive feature data. Moreover, further statistical analyses were conducted on the outpatient data obtained from the regional population health platform in Jiaxing, China. RESULTS: The decision tree model revealed that whether outpatients have medical insurance is the primary factor guiding their healthcare-seeking behaviors, with those without medical insurance more likely to choose primary or secondary hospitals to treat minor diseases. For those with medical insurance, profession is the main factor, with industrial workers more inclined to choose primary or secondary hospitals for minor diseases. The logistic regression analyses revealed that outpatients without insurance and who were not freelancers or individual owners were more likely to choose primary or secondary hospitals for minor diseases. Further statistical analysis of the data from the Jiaxing population health platform showed that, for minor or general diseases, outpatients without medical insurance and employed as farmers tended to choose primary and secondary hospitals over tertiary hospitals. CONCLUSION: The three analyses yielded consistent results: in China, medical insurance and patients' profession are the most important factors guiding outpatients' healthcare-seeking behaviors. Accordingly, we propose that the government should focus on economic reforms to increase outpatients' visits to primary and secondary hospitals and diagnosis-related groups' payment of medical insurance to decrease the admittance of patients with minor diseases in large tertiary hospitals. Meanwhile, the government should correct patients' belief prejudice about selecting hospitals through corresponding publicity.

Moderating effects of regional disparities on the relationship between individual determinants and public health service utilization among internal migrants: evidence from the China migrant dynamic survey in 2017.

BACKGROUND: Regional disparities and individual determinants have a significant impact on the accessibility of national essential public health services (NEPHS) for internal migrants (IMs) Nevertheless, few studies have explored the interaction between these two factors. METHOD: A cross-sectional sample of 102,632 IMs from the 2017 China Migrant Dynamic Survey was selected. The 28 provinces were divided into high-income provinces (HIPs) and low and middle-income provinces (LMIPs) according to their per capita disposable income (PCDI). Logistic regression was conducted using sex, residence duration, education, community type, migration range, social participation and relative personal income as independent variables, NEPHS awareness and health records registration (HRR) as dependent variables, and regional economic development level (REDL) as a moderating variable. RESULTS: The rate of NEPHS awareness and HRR in HIPs (60.7, 30.6%) were lower (x2 = 42.486, p < 0.001; x2 = 25.573, p < 0.001) than those in LMIPs (62.9, 32.2%). After controlling for other variables, NEPHS awareness (OR = 1.379, p < 0.001) and HRR (OR = 1.661, p < 0.001) of IMs in HIPs were higher. Sub-group proportion of education Ms. in HIPs were higher. Sub-group = 1.379, p < 0.001) and HRR dependent mong internal migrants:, 61.0, 42.2%) were higher than those in LMIPs (60.4, 19.7, 35.8, 25.5%). Among urban communities, intra-provincial migration, social participation, education > 9 years, and middle-income, the protective effect of the first three factors on NEPHS awareness was greater in HIPs (OR = 1.386, p < 0.001; OR = 1.383, p < 0.001; OR = 2.008, p < 0.001) than in LMIPs (OR = 1.053, p < 0.001; OR = 1.109, p < 0.001; OR = 1.861, p < 0.001), while the effect of all five factors on HRR was greater in HIPs (OR = 1.440, p < 0.001; OR = 1.380, p < 0.001; OR = 1.895, p < 0.001; OR = 1.148, p < 0.001; OR = 1.146, p < 0.001) than in LMIPs (OR = 1.045, p < 0.05; OR = 1.169, p < 0.001; OR = 1.677, p < 0.001; OR = 1.027, p > 0.05; OR = 1.028, p > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: REDL directly affected the NEPHS utilization of IMs, and the negative effects of vulnerable characteristics on the NEPHS utilization of IMs were amplified in HIPs. The government is urged to regard IMs with vulnerable characteristics in HIPs as the key population in future NEPHS equalization and take targeted measures to stimulate their enthusiasm to participate in NEPHS.

Materials with Tunable Optical Properties for Wearable Epidermal Sensing in Health Monitoring.

Advances in wearable epidermal sensors have revolutionized the way that physiological signals are captured and measured for health monitoring. One major challenge is to convert physiological signals to easily readable signals in a convenient way. One possibility for wearable epidermal sensors is based on visible readouts. There are a range of materials whose optical properties can be tuned by parameters such as temperature, pH, light, and electric fields. Herein, this review covers and highlights a set of materials with tunable optical properties and their integration into wearable epidermal sensors for health monitoring. Specifically, the recent progress, fabrication, and applications of these materials for wearable epidermal sensors are summarized and discussed. Finally, the challenges and perspectives for the next generation wearable devices are proposed.

General characteristics, economic burden, causative drugs and medical errors associated with medical damage litigation involving severe cutaneous adverse drug reactions in China.

WHAT IS KNOWN AND OBJECTIVE: To investigate the general characteristics, economic burden, causative drugs and medical errors associated with litigation involving severe cutaneous adverse drug reactions (SCADRs) in China, with the aims of improving rational medication use and reducing the extent of damage from SCADRs. METHODS: This study analysed 150 lawsuit judgements involving SCADRs from 2005 to 2019, collected from China Judgments Online. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: In total, 50% of lawsuits stemmed from SCADRs occurring in general hospitals. The average time elapsed from the date of occurrence of the SCADRs to the end of litigation procedures was 1055 days. Of the patients involved, 51% were female and more than two thirds (69%) were under 60 years old. The most common outcome of SCADRs was death (39%), followed by disabilities (30%). The average responsibility of the medical provider was 48 ± 29%. The average amount of compensation was $43 424. Of the cases studied, 51% of SCADRs were Stevens-Johnson syndrome or toxic epidermal necrolysis, which together accounted for 75% of cases with known clinical subtype. The overall average economic burden of SCADRs was $99 178, of which indirect costs made up the largest proportion (more than 60%). The most common causative drug groups were antimicrobial drugs (49%), Chinese patent medicine and Chinese herbal medicine (17%), and antipyretic analgesics (16%). Finally, 61% of medical errors were found to stem from violation of duty of care, 20% from violation of informed consent and 18% from violations related to the medical record writing and management system. WHAT IS NEW AND CONCLUSION: Severe cutaneous adverse drug reactions not only severely affect patient survival and quality of life, but also impose a heavy economic burden in terms of health care and societal costs. Medical providers should be better educated on strategies to reduce risk to patients and establish mechanisms of risk sharing and management.

An Augmented Reality Geo-Registration Method for Ground Target Localization from a Low-Cost UAV Platform.

This paper presents an augmented reality-based method for geo-registering videos from low-cost multi-rotor Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). The goal of the proposed method is to conduct an accurate geo-registration and target localization on a UAV video stream. The geo-registration of video stream requires accurate attitude data. However, the Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) sensors on most low-cost UAVs are not capable of being directly used for geo-registering the video. The magnetic compasses on UAVs are more vulnerable to the interferences in the working environment than the accelerometers. Thus the camera yaw error is the main sources of the registration error. In this research, to enhance the low accuracy attitude data from the onboard IMU, an extended Kalman Filter (EKF) model is used to merge Real Time Kinematic Global Positioning System (RTK GPS) data with the IMU data. In the merge process, the high accuracy RTK GPS data can be used to promote the accuracy and stability of the 3-axis body attitude data. A method of target localization based on the geo-registration model is proposed to determine the coordinates of the ground targets in the video. The proposed method uses a modified extended Kalman Filter to combine the data from RTK GPS and the IMU to improve the accuracy of the geo-registration and the localization result of the ground targets. The localization results are compared to the reference point coordinates from satellite image. The comparison indicates that the proposed method can provide practical geo-registration and target localization results.

Embryonic ablation of neuronal VGF increases energy expenditure and reduces body weight.

Germline ablation of VGF, a secreted neuronal, neuroendocrine, and endocrine peptide precursor, results in lean, hypermetabolic, and infertile adult mice that are resistant to diet-, lesion-, and genetically-induced obesity and diabetes (Hahm et al., 1999, 2002). To assess whether this phenotype is predominantly driven by reduced VGF expression in developing and/or adult neurons, or in peripheral endocrine and neuroendocrine tissues, we generated and analyzed conditional VGF knockout mice, obtained by mating loxP-flanked (floxed) Vgf mice with either pan-neuronal Synapsin-Cre- or forebrain alpha-CaMKII-Cre-recombinase-expressing transgenic mice. Adult male and female mice, with conditional ablation of the Vgf gene in embryonic neurons had significantly reduced body weight, increased energy expenditure, and were resistant to diet-induced obesity. Conditional forebrain postnatal ablation of VGF in male mice, primarily in adult excitatory neurons, had no measurable effect on body weight nor on energy expenditure, but led to a modest increase in adiposity, partially overlapping the effect of AAV-Cre-mediated targeted ablation of VGF in the adult ventromedial hypothalamus and arcuate nucleus of floxed Vgf mice (Foglesong et al., 2016), and also consistent with results of icv delivery of the VGF-derived peptide TLQP-21 to adult mice, which resulted in increased energy expenditure and reduced adiposity (Bartolomucci et al., 2006). Because the lean, hypermetabolic phenotype of germline VGF knockout mice is to a great extent recapitulated in Syn-Cre+/-,Vgfflpflox/flpflox mice, we conclude that the metabolic profile of germline VGF knockout mice is largely the result of VGF ablation in embryonic CNS neurons, rather than peripheral endocrine and/or neuroendocrine cells, and that in forebrain structures such as hypothalamus, VGF and/or VGF-derived peptides play uniquely different roles in the developing and adult nervous system.

The hidden opportunity cost of time effect on intertemporal choice.

An interesting phenomenon called "hidden opportunity cost of time effect" was detected in intertemporal choices. The majority of our participants preferred the smaller but sooner (SS) option to the larger but later (LL) option if opportunity cost was explicit. However, a higher proportion of participants preferred the LL to SS option if opportunity cost was hidden. This shift violates the invariance principle and opens a new way to encourage future-oriented behavior. By simply mentioning the "obvious" opportunity cost of alternatives, decision makers can be more informed in prioritizing their long-term goals rather than short-term goals.

The impact of pharmaceutical care on improving outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus from China: a pre- and postintervention study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness of pharmaceutical care services in management teams by assessing the change in hemoglobin A1c (A1C), cholesterol, and blood pressure for patients with type 2 diabetes in a diabetes ward. SETTING: Tongde hospital of Zhejiang province, a 1,200 bed South China teaching hospital, serving the local community. METHOD: A single-center, 2-phase (pre-/postintervention phase) designs was performed. Patients in postintervention phase (July 2013 to December 2013) received pharmaceutical care from a clinical pharmacist, while patients in the preintervention phase (January 2013 to June 2013) received routine medical care. The pre- and postintervention phases were then compared to evaluate the outcomes of pharmaceutical care services. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The primary end point was the absolute change in A1C versus baseline, the change in cholesterol and blood pressure and the number of patients to achieve Chinese Diabetes Society (CDS) goals at the baseline and at the end of pharmaceutical care were the main outcome measures. RESULTS: During the 6-month study period, the postintervention phase showed a greater percent change in A1C (-1.45 vs. -0.43 %, P = 0.03). Another end points for achieving CDS goals were statistically significantly different in low-density lipoprotein, triglycerides and blood pressure. In the phase that received the participation of pharmacists, the number of patients that improved in A1C increased from 327 to 406 (P = 0.02); the number of rehospitalization was 29 for the postintervention phase and 75 for the preintervention phase (P = 0.05).The drug cost per patient day decreased from 254.74 to 219.85 (P = 0.095), and the Length of stay (LOS) did not change significantly (16.35 vs. 15.91 days; P = 0.15). CONCLUSION: Including a pharmacist as a part of the diabetes management team may result in lower A1C, cholesterol and blood pressure in patients versus a health care.

Reverse resonance in stock prices of financial system with periodic information.

We investigate the stochastic resonance of the stock prices in a finance system with the Heston model. The extrinsic and intrinsic periodic information are introduced into the stochastic differential equations of the Heston model for stock price by focusing on the signal power amplification (SPA). We find that for both cases of extrinsic and intrinsic periodic information a phenomenon of reverse resonance emerges in the behaviors of SPA as a function of the system and external driving parameters. Moreover, in both cases, a phenomenon of double reverse resonance is observed in the behavior of SPA versus the amplitude of volatility fluctuations, by increasing the cross correlation between the noise sources in the Heston model.

A visible dye-based staining method for DNA in polyacrylamide gels by ethyl violet.

We describe a visible dye-based staining method for DNA in polyacrylamide gels using ethyl violet (EV). The novel method is a background-free, sensitive, economical, and simple procedure involving only staining and washing steps that can be completed within 30 min. As little as 0.8-1.6 ng of phiX174 DNA/HaeIII can be detected by EV, which is about eightfold more sensitive than Nile blue (NB) stain and twofold less sensitive than ethidium bromide (EB) stain.

Fiber depolymerization: fracture, fragments, vanishing times, and stochastics in sickle hemoglobin.

The well-characterized rates, mechanisms, and stochastics of nucleation-dependent polymerization of deoxyhemoglobin S (HbS) are important in governing whether or not vaso-occlusive sickle cell crises will occur. The less well studied kinetics of depolymerization may also be important, for example in achieving full dissolution of polymers in the lungs, in resolution of crises and/or in minimizing gelation-induced cellular damage. We examine depolymerization by microscopic observations on depolymerizing HbS fibers, by Monte Carlo simulations and by analytical characterization of the mechanisms. We show that fibers fracture. Experimental scatter of rates is consistent with stochastic features of the analytical model and Monte Carlo results. We derive a model for the distribution of vanishing times and also show the distribution of fracture-dependent fiber fragment lengths and its time dependence. We describe differences between depolymerization of single fibers and bundles and propose models for bundle dissolution. Our basic model can be extended to dissolution of gels containing many fibers and is also applicable to other reversible linear polymers that dissolve by random fracture and end-depolymerization. Under the model, conditions in which residual HbS polymers exist and facilitate repolymerization and thus pathology can be defined; whereas for normal polymers requiring cyclic polymerization and depolymerization for function, conditions for rapid cycling due to residual aggregates can be identified.